The FC 27 market cycle
The market runs the same patterns every year. The phases come from the FC 24 to FC 26 cycles and get adjusted as soon as EA confirms the content.
- falling hard
Web App, EA Play trial and Ultimate Edition early access. Barely any coins are in circulation, so prices look high — but they drop every day as more and more packs get opened.
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- falling hard
Full release and Ones to Watch. The player count explodes, packs get opened en masse, and gold cards keep losing value daily. Meta cards hold up a little better because everyone is building a team.
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Fri 25/09 Full Release + Ones to Watch The market settles at its level. The weekly promo rhythm kicks in: Thursday dip, promo at 6pm UK on Friday, supply high over the weekend, recovery on Monday and Tuesday.
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Fri 09/10 Ratings Reload- falling
The first big wave of content, with plenty of SBCs. Icons and Heroes steady out because fodder disappears into SBCs.
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The quietest stretch of the first half of the season. Icon SBCs and upgrade packs keep demand up for fodder and Icons.
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- falling hard
Everyone knows Black Friday is coming: Lightning Rounds, flash SBCs, Best of TOTW. The market sells early to have coins ready.
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Thu 26/11 Black Friday Eve - falling hard
Lightning Rounds all day, Best of TOTW back in packs, flash SBCs. The classic market low of the first half of the season, usually Sunday or Monday.
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Fri 27/11 Black Friday Lightning Rounds - rising fast
Packs dry up again, supply falls, and prices recover by 15–30 % within 7–10 days.
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- flat
Joga Bonito and Unbreakables (FC 26: 5 Dec and 12 Dec). The market is stable and Icons tick up slightly.
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- flat
A big promo with plenty of objectives and SBCs. Lots of new content, and plenty of new players join for the holidays.
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- rising
New consoles, new players, FUT Points as gifts. Demand for meta cards and Icons picks up noticeably.
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Thu 24/12 Christmas - falling
TOTY voting opens. The market starts hoarding coins for Team of the Year.
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Fri 01/01 Time Warp & TOTY Nominees - falling hard
The biggest predictable crash of the season. Everyone sells to have coins for TOTY packs and cards. Icons and highly rated meta cards lose 20–35 %.
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- falling
TOTY cards drop in waves: attackers (Fri), midfield (Mon), defence (Wed), full squad (Fri). Extremely volatile, and the low for the whole market usually lands somewhere between Sunday and Wednesday.
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Fri 15/01 TOTY Attackers in PacksMon 18/01 TOTY MidfieldWed 20/01 TOTY Defence - rising fast
The strongest rebound of the season. Icons and meta cards gain 25–45 % within two weeks.
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Fri 22/01 TOTY Full Squad - flat
The young-player promo, with plenty of upgrades. The market stays stable.
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A quiet phase. Fantasy FC cards with upgrade potential swing with real-world results.
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The FUT Birthday promo, with skill move and weak foot upgrades. Lots of SBCs, so fodder is in demand.
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- falling
Road to the Final and Trophy Titans (FC 26: 27 Mar and 3 Apr). The last 'normal' phase. The market knows that from mid-April everything that isn't TOTS becomes worthless.
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- falling hard
Team of the Season is on the way. Gold cards fall towards discard value and autumn promo cards lose heavily.
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Fri 23/04 Community TOTS - falling hard
Six weeks of TOTS: one league per week (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and so on). TOTS cards are most expensive on release Friday and lose 20–40 % by Sunday.
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Fri 07/05 Premier League TOTS - falling
The best TOTS cards from every league go back into packs. Every earlier TOTS loses value again.
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Fri 11/06 Ultimate TOTS Shapeshifters and Futties. 95+ cards everywhere, and prices only still matter for the very best cards.
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- falling hard
FC 28 is around the corner. Coins and cards lose all meaning.
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