How we calculate
No magic, just the patterns that have come back every year since FIFA 20, plus everything the community is talking about right now.
1. The season cycle
The FUT market repeats the same phases every year: launch deflation (September), the weekly promo rhythm, the Black Friday crash (late November), Christmas demand, the TOTY crash with the strongest recovery of the year (January), a flat spring market and the TOTS endgame from April. For every phase we keep an expected daily move per card type and rating band.
2. The weekly rhythm
Inside each week the patterns are fixed: on Thursday, Weekend League rewards and promo leaks push prices down, the promo release at 6 pm UK on Friday pushes them down further, from Sunday to Tuesday the market recovers, and on Wednesday the TOTW arrives. This pattern is added on top of the phase drift.
3. Card age
Promo and TOTW cards lose value during their first days in packs whatever the market does, because supply keeps rising. After one or two weeks they go out of packs and recover. We keep a separate age profile for that.
4. Hype
Every day we read Reddit (r/EASportsFC, r/FUT), the YouTube transcripts of the big trading channels and the leaker accounts. How often a card is mentioned gives it a hype score from 1 to 5. Hype amplifies moves in both directions.
5. Leaks
Leaks about SBCs, POTM, promos and objectives are turned by Claude into structured market effects: which league, which club, which rating, how many percent, how certain. When a leak matches a card, it feeds into the signal weighted by how certain it is.
6. Signal and band
Phase, weekday, card age, hype, leaks and creator calls produce the expected change over 3, 7, 14 and 30 days, together with an uncertainty band (25th to 75th percentile). On top of that comes mean reversion: roughly 10 % of the last seven days' move is given back in the following week, so a card that has just dropped 20 % gets a recovery bonus. Creator calls only count as much as that channel actually got right in that direction in the backtest. From all of it we derive the direction: sharply down, down, flat, up, sharply up.
7. Which horizon counts
We forecast 7 days out, because anything shorter does not work. Over a single day the model is right only 55 % of the time and the 5 % EA tax is not even covered in 54 % of cases; buying and selling the next day loses 2 % on average. Over 7 days the hit rate is 63 %, over 14 days 67 %. The one-day number still has a job: if you already own the card, the tax is due anyway and only the direction matters. When the model calls 5 % down for tomorrow, the card fell 66 % of the time in the backtest, by 4.8 % on average. That is why the number sits in the signals, as sell timing and not as a buy signal.
8. Price range update
EA caps every card with a price range. If the price sits at the top of it for a long time, EA eventually raises the range and the price jumps. In the FC 26 history, gold cards that stood at their previous high for ten days or more gained 168 % over 30 days on average, and more than 50 % in 40 % of cases. Usually nothing happens in the first week, so we keep these cards separate as an investment over weeks instead of in the 7-day signal.
9. Backtest and calibration
We loaded the complete FC 26 season as daily prices (gold, meta, icons, promos). Half the cards calibrate phase drifts, event shocks and the age profile of promo cards; the other half tests how often the model gets the 7-day direction right, per phase and card type, against the “always falls” baseline. The result is below, and it is updated with every new batch of data.
FC 26 backtest: direction over 7 days
414 cards, 89,597 observations, the full FC 26 season (futbin daily prices), model without leaks and hype. A hit means the direction was right. Baseline = “always falls”. Out of sample: the drifts were calibrated on different cards than the ones tested here. As of 13/09/2026.
| Phase | n | Hit rate | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early Access & Web App | 1306 | 59.8 % | 55.6 % |
| Full Release | 1534 | 57.8 % | 60.9 % |
| Early Season (Ratings Reload, Ultimate Scream) | 3953 | 61.2 % | 62.1 % |
| Ultimate Scream (Halloween) | 3041 | 75.3 % | 74.3 % |
| November (Captains, FC Pro Live) | 2938 | 58.2 % | 61.4 % |
| Before Black Friday (Sell-Off) | 1302 | 78.3 % | 78.8 % |
| Black Friday Weekend | 876 | 64.5 % | 36.5 % |
| Post-Black-Friday Rebound | 2212 | 65.7 % | 58.6 % |
| December Promos | 1563 | 70.4 % | 69.0 % |
| Winter Wildcards | 1346 | 52.2 % | 54.2 % |
| Christmas | 1819 | 63.5 % | 28.8 % |
| Time Warp & TOTY Nominees | 1611 | 60.4 % | 52.5 % |
| Pre-TOTY Crash | 1621 | 57.1 % | 56.6 % |
| TOTY Week | 1635 | 56.0 % | 58.3 % |
| Post-TOTY Rebound | 3290 | 61.6 % | 25.7 % |
| Future Stars | 3378 | 57.3 % | 66.9 % |
| Late Winter (Knockout Royalty, Fantasy FC) | 5218 | 60.6 % | 62.6 % |
| Ultimate Birthday | 3585 | 52.2 % | 43.2 % |
| Spring (Before TOTS) | 5475 | 54.1 % | 59.2 % |
| Pre-TOTS Crash | 3703 | 58.0 % | 26.0 % |
| Team of the Season | 11230 | 50.3 % | 49.9 % |
| Ultimate TOTS | 3839 | 63.9 % | 74.0 % |
| Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | 17869 | 56.4 % | 41.8 % |
| End of Season | 5069 | 62.0 % | 37.4 % |
| Card type: Gold (standard) | 26135 | 58.4 % | 50.3 % |
| Card type: Icon | 20876 | 65.9 % | 56.8 % |
| Card type: Gold meta (in demand) | 18844 | 64.0 % | 55.4 % |
| Card type: Team of the Week / inform | 19300 | 44.8 % | 40.5 % |
| Card type: Promo card | 4356 | 61.9 % | 59.8 % |
| Card type: Hero | 86 | 77.9 % | 77.9 % |
YouTubers against the model (FC 26)
We pulled the buy and sell calls out of last season's trading videos from their transcripts (855 calls, 329 of them matched to cards with price history) and checked them against the actual price move over the stated period. Next to that: what our model would have said at the same moment.
| Channel / direction | Calls | Creator right | Model right | Avg. move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUT Accountant | 280 | 48.6 % | 52.9 % | 6.2 % |
| RunTheFUTMarket | 49 | 34.7 % | 69.4 % | 6.0 % |
| FUT Accountant/sell | 137 | 47.4 % | 53.3 % | 4.6 % |
| RunTheFUTMarket/buy | 28 | 32.1 % | 67.9 % | 10.6 % |
| RunTheFUTMarket/hold | 12 | 33.3 % | 83.3 % | -4.3 % |
| FUT Accountant/hold | 45 | 26.7 % | 42.2 % | 7.2 % |
| FUT Accountant/buy | 98 | 60.2 % | 57.1 % | 8.1 % |
| RunTheFUTMarket/sell | 9 | 44.4 % | 55.6 % | 5.5 % |
EA tax is deducted everywhere
EA keeps 5 % of every sale on the transfer market. That deduction is in our numbers at every step: on every sale, in the valuation of open positions and in the closing balance. Buys are always at the full market price, no discount.
Over the season that comes to 679,492 coins of tax on 293 sales. It is that much because the capital is turned over every week. The same trades without tax would end at 2,178,397 coins instead of 909,011. We report the smaller number, because that is the one that actually lands in your club.
What that means in practice: a card has to rise more than 5.26 % before a trade breaks even at all. That is why flipping your club every day makes no sense, and why the focus list says “hold” rather than “buy” for a lot of cards.
The assumption the headline figure rests on
How many copies of the same card you buy moves the result more than any model improvement does. Exactly one copy per card is unrealistically pessimistic: spread 100,000 coins over 6 positions and each position holds around 16,667 coins, which buys several copies of a card in that price band. The figure on the front page assumes 5 copies.
So here is the same season calculated for several values. Above ten copies the curve flattens – at that point the limit is the capital, not the number of copies. What caps the assumption on the way up is that you move the price yourself once you buy out too many listings; popular gold cards have hundreds of listings on the transfer market, niche cards barely one.
| Copies per card | Closing balance | Factor | per week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 329,397 | 3.3× | 2.4 % |
| 3 | 697,004 | 7.0× | 4.0 % |
| 5 | 909,011 | 9.1× | 4.5 % |
| 10 | 1,188,402 | 11.9× | 5.1 % |
Every single week of last season
Not a smoothed average but the path of one single run: what the strategy made that week, how the market moved over the same period (median of all tradable cards) and how much was sitting in cards. 14 of the 50 weeks ended down, and in 8 of those the whole market fell as well. The column on the right names the card that cost the most that week.
| Week ending | Phase | us | Market | Holdings | biggest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/25 | Full Release | +0.0 % | -12.4 % | 100,000 | – |
| 08/10/25 | Early Season (Ratings Reload, Ultimate Scream) | +15.6 % | -6.4 % | 115,616 | – |
| 15/10/25 | Early Season (Ratings Reload, Ultimate Scream) | -13.4 % | -11.0 % | 100,163 | João Pedro Gonçalves Neves -25 % |
| 22/10/25 | Early Season (Ratings Reload, Ultimate Scream) | -9.7 % | -12.9 % | 90,440 | Giorgi Mamardashvili -26 % |
| 29/10/25 | Ultimate Scream (Halloween) | -4.2 % | +6.9 % | 86,628 | Désiré Doué -18 % |
| 05/11/25 | Ultimate Scream (Halloween) | +9.9 % | -6.4 % | 95,233 | Jeremie Frimpong -12 % |
| 12/11/25 | November (Captains, FC Pro Live) | +6.4 % | -15.0 % | 101,359 | Theo Hernández -8 % |
| 19/11/25 | November (Captains, FC Pro Live) | +4.6 % | -0.8 % | 106,004 | Irene Paredes Hernández -17 % (Leak) |
| 26/11/25 | Before Black Friday (Sell-Off) | +8.5 % | -8.2 % | 114,964 | Sophia Wilson -8 % |
| 03/12/25 | Post-Black-Friday Rebound | +7.3 % | -14.1 % | 123,336 | Sakina Karchaoui -4 % (Leak) |
| 10/12/25 | Post-Black-Friday Rebound | +6.9 % | +5.1 % | 131,853 | Débora C. de Oliveira -4 % |
| 17/12/25 | December Promos | +5.0 % | -13.9 % | 138,461 | Salma Celeste Paralluelo Ayingono -8 % |
| 24/12/25 | Winter Wildcards | -0.8 % | -4.6 % | 137,311 | Fermín López Marín -13 % |
| 31/12/25 | Christmas | +4.0 % | -0.7 % | 142,772 | Éder Gabriel Militão -5 % |
| 07/01/26 | Time Warp & TOTY Nominees | +1.4 % | +3.1 % | 144,822 | Declan Rice -3 % |
| 14/01/26 | Pre-TOTY Crash | +6.8 % | -6.6 % | 154,602 | Rose Lavelle -9 % |
| 21/01/26 | TOTY Week | +6.0 % | +2.6 % | 163,888 | Jan Oblak -5 % |
| 28/01/26 | Post-TOTY Rebound | +5.1 % | +4.1 % | 172,224 | Frenkie de Jong -4 % |
| 04/02/26 | Post-TOTY Rebound | +11.6 % | +8.5 % | 192,257 | – |
| 11/02/26 | Future Stars | -1.8 % | +3.5 % | 188,810 | Theo Hernández -14 % |
| 18/02/26 | Future Stars | -0.5 % | -5.3 % | 187,865 | Caroline Graham Hansen -7 % |
| 25/02/26 | Late Winter (Knockout Royalty, Fantasy FC) | +33.8 % | -6.4 % | 251,270 | Rodrigo Hernández Cascante -1 % |
| 04/03/26 | Late Winter (Knockout Royalty, Fantasy FC) | +9.4 % | -2.8 % | 274,969 | – |
| 11/03/26 | Late Winter (Knockout Royalty, Fantasy FC) | -0.6 % | -17.7 % | 273,292 | María Francesca Caldentey Oliver -10 % |
| 18/03/26 | Ultimate Birthday | +12.2 % | +0.8 % | 306,747 | Jaedyn Shaw -2 % |
| 25/03/26 | Ultimate Birthday | +0.4 % | -8.6 % | 307,826 | Keira Walsh -9 % |
| 01/04/26 | Spring (Before TOTS) | +8.2 % | +12.2 % | 333,209 | Declan Rice -9 % |
| 08/04/26 | Spring (Before TOTS) | +16.3 % | -4.8 % | 387,435 | Florian Wirtz -17 % |
| 15/04/26 | Spring (Before TOTS) | -7.5 % | -1.4 % | 358,200 | Victor Osimhen -30 % |
| 22/04/26 | Pre-TOTS Crash | +4.2 % | -5.8 % | 373,071 | Sophia Wilson -45 % |
| 29/04/26 | Pre-TOTS Crash | +3.7 % | +9.3 % | 386,888 | Vinícius José de Oliveira Júnior -4 % |
| 06/05/26 | Team of the Season | +1.7 % | +8.1 % | 393,515 | Aitana Bonmatí Conca -3 % |
| 13/05/26 | Team of the Season | -6.5 % | +5.2 % | 367,957 | Erling Haaland -15 % |
| 20/05/26 | Team of the Season | +9.9 % | -0.4 % | 404,245 | Vítor Machado Ferreira -6 % (Leak) |
| 27/05/26 | Team of the Season | +0.2 % | -0.3 % | 405,181 | Vinícius José de Oliveira Júnior -24 % |
| 03/06/26 | Team of the Season | -4.0 % | -19.3 % | 388,839 | María Francesca Caldentey Oliver -22 % |
| 10/06/26 | Team of the Season | +6.1 % | +9.7 % | 412,750 | Erling Haaland -5 % |
| 17/06/26 | Ultimate TOTS | -1.6 % | +8.6 % | 406,315 | Ann-Katrin Berger -6 % |
| 24/06/26 | Ultimate TOTS | +9.0 % | -7.6 % | 443,005 | – |
| 01/07/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | -7.0 % | -3.0 % | 411,850 | Caroline Graham Hansen -22 % |
| 08/07/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | -1.8 % | +1.4 % | 404,516 | Aitana Bonmatí Conca -17 % |
| 15/07/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | +61.6 % | +7.6 % | 653,632 | Khadija Shaw -4 % |
| 22/07/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | +9.4 % | -3.8 % | 715,089 | Karim Benzema -16 % |
| 29/07/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | -16.7 % | +2.6 % | 595,392 | Kylian Mbappé -51 % |
| 05/08/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | +1.0 % | +4.6 % | 601,568 | Millie Bright -9 % |
| 12/08/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | +4.2 % | +4.3 % | 627,050 | Beth Mead -5 % |
| 19/08/26 | Summer / Endgame (Shapeshifters, Futties) | +11.1 % | -10.1 % | 696,600 | Millie Bright -1 % |
| 26/08/26 | End of Season | +0.6 % | +4.9 % | 701,112 | Aitana Bonmatí Conca -5 % |
| 02/09/26 | End of Season | +22.7 % | +11.3 % | 859,943 | – |
| 09/09/26 | End of Season | +6.5 % | -0.2 % | 916,079 | Vítor Machado Ferreira -2 % |
What we do not do
- No bots, no autobuyer, no sniping. We tell you what and when, you trade it yourself in the Web App.
- No coin selling. That breaks EA's rules.
- No guarantees. EA can change content at any time. The band shows how confident the model is.