Analysis · 7 November 2026
GTA 6 and the FUT market: what big game launches did to prices
In short: As of 7 Nov 2026: last season there was no reliable link between big game launches and FUT prices. In 6 of the 10 best-selling launch weeks the market did worse than in a normal week, in 4 it did better. GTA 6 launches on 19 Nov 2026 and is expected to sell several times as much; whether that moves the market, only the prices will show.
Last season's ten best-selling games
New releases between the FC 26 launch (26 Sep 2025) and July 2026, ranked by the publisher's latest official sales figure. Next to it, the typical price of all FC 26 cards from 5,000 coins in the week before the launch, the launch week and the week after.
| Game | Launch | Sold | Week before | Launch week | Week after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meccha Chameleon | 10 Jun 2026 | 20.3m | +2.0 % | +13.3 % | −6.9 % |
| Pokémon Legends: Z-A | 16 Oct 2025 | 12.3m | −10.4 % | −13.3 % | +6.3 % |
| ARC Raiders | 30 Oct 2025 | 12.0m | +6.3 % | −6.6 % | −13.3 % |
| Resident Evil Requiem | 27 Feb 2026 | 8.0m | −5.9 % | −1.4 % | −16.8 % |
| Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream | 16 Apr 2026 | 8.0m | −1.6 % | −4.7 % | +10.2 % |
| Battlefield 6 | 10 Oct 2025 | 7.0m | −7.3 % | −11.6 % | −11.9 % |
| Crimson Desert | 19 Mar 2026 | 6.0m | +1.1 % | −7.4 % | +13.2 % |
| Pokémon Pokopia | 5 Mar 2026 | 5.0m | −3.3 % | −17.4 % | +1.1 % |
| Subnautica 2 | 14 May 2026 | 5.0m | +5.6 % | −0.6 % | −0.8 % |
| RV There Yet? | 21 Oct 2025 | 4.5m | −7.4 % | −1.4 % | −3.9 % |
Compared with the three weeks before and after, the launch week did worse in 6 of 10 cases and better in 4. Black Ops 7 and Ghost of Yōtei are missing because their publishers gave no sales figure.
Why this is not a clear effect
The sharpest drops also came after Pokémon Pokopia and Tomodachi Life, calm Nintendo games that hardly pull players away from FUT. Many launch weeks also had a new FUT promo: Battlefield 6 launched on the same day as Ratings Reload, Crimson Desert one day before the next promo. And the FUT market falls from October to Black Friday anyway, launch or not.
Battlefield 6 in detail
Battlefield 6 is the game on the list most likely to share players with FUT. The 138 gold cards from 5,000 coins fell 20.8 % (median) in the week after the launch, 132 of them got cheaper. They did not recover: after a short bounce in late October they were lower four weeks later than ever before.
| Day | Gold cards, median |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2025, day before launch | ±0.0 % |
| 16 Oct 2025, one week later | −20.8 % |
| 22 Oct 2025, the low | −31.7 % |
| 29 Oct 2025, bounce | −20.4 % |
| 6 Nov 2025, four weeks later | −34.5 % |
In the two weeks before the launch the whole market was already down 15.6 %: the season was falling anyway.
How big is the GTA 6 hype?
GTA V sold about 11.2 million copies on its first day in 2013 and more than 33 million by May 2014. Analysts expect 35 to 45 million for GTA 6 in its first year. Battlefield 6, last season's biggest comparable launch, reached 7 million in its first days. For GTA 6 this is a forecast, not a result.
| Game | Sold | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Battlefield 6 | 7.0m | first days |
| GTA V | 11.2m | first day |
| GTA V | 33.0m | by May 2014, 8 months |
| GTA 6, forecast | 35 to 45 million | first year |
What this means for the coming weeks
The data does not point to a crash caused by GTA 6. The fear is real though: some creators already tell people to sell before 19 Nov. Whether that turns into a sell-off, the prices in the days before will show. GTA 6 lands in the phase where FUT falls every year, eight days before Black Friday (27 Nov). Last year the typical card was down 30.5 % from 14 to 29 Nov, and gold cards bought at the low were up 22.7 % after tax four days later.
When to sell, when to buy
The buy list gives you the buy limit and the sell day for every card, recalculated several times a day.
Open the buy listMethod
Daily console prices from our FC 26 price history, every card worth at least 5,000 coins at the start of the week, median per card. Week = day before the launch to seven days later; normal week = median of the three weeks before and after. Sales: the publisher's latest official figure, collected by Install Base.
Sources
- Install Base: best-selling 2025 games
- Install Base: best-selling 2026 games
- Rockstar Games: GTA VI pre-load
- Guinness World Records: GTA V sales records
- Forbes: GTA 6 sales estimates
- GameSpot: DFC Intelligence forecast
By Andreas Ries, who runs FC27Investor and has traded FUT himself for years. · Figures last computed on · Legal notice